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| Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity |
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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Central America, Mexico, Dominican Republic 
Rapid, human-induced climate change is threatening to push species and ecosystems outside of habitable environmental conditions. In light of the growing need to consider climate change in policymaking, decision-makers need to understand possible impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Mesoamerica and the Caribbean are two of the world’s twenty-five biodiversity hotspots, teeming with globally significant biodiversity. In Mesoamerica alone, nearly 8% of the world’s terrestrial species are found on less than 1% of earth’s landmass (Mauri 2002). Yet, along with other pressures, climate change poses a large threat to the region's species and ecosystems. Over millennia, the warm, wet Mesoamerican and Caribbean climate has allowed diverse arrays of species and ecosystems to flourish, filling unique and complex systems of niches. Each has adapted to natural phenomena such as hurricanes, tropical storms, floods and droughts, and they have proven to be quite resilient; however, this rich tapestry of life is constantly threatened by human-induced drivers of environmental change. The conversion of natural landscapes such as forests, grasslands, and wetlands, to agriculture, pastures or settlements is the primary culprit of habitat loss and the endangerment of species. Like land degradation, anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxides, puts the region’s biodiversity at risk. Biodiversity comprises many ecosystem services—in the form of food and medicinal plant products vital to local and national economies, ecosystems that retain and provide fresh water, prevent erosion and filter out pollutants, as well as rare and endemic species that display a place’s unique beauty. Thus, it is especially important to monitor the possible impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Objectives The overall objective is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama, specifically highlighting critical areas for conservation. This study focuses on biodiversity from the standpoint of both ecosystems and the species which inhabit them, particularly terrestrial amphibians, birds, and mammals, keeping in mind how climatic factors will potentially threaten or impact these. Ecosystems are represented by the dominant vegetation—or the dominant land cover, if human intervention has occurred—and different altitudes. Species richness is a fundamental measure of biodiversity, which counts the number of unique individual species in a place, regardless of the density of abundance of each type of animal.
High-resolution climatological scenario data from the SERVIR, PRECIS and WorldClim initiatives were variously used as inputs in the analysis, acknowledging that while climate scenario data are not predictions and possess uncertainties, they nonetheless constitute useful tools that can allow Governments, local communities, and international communities to better plan strategies for mainstreaming initiatives to facilitate adaptation to climate change in the region.
Among the various global models and scenarios, those considered in this report came from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis’ third generation coupled global climate model (CCCMa), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization’s Mark 3 of the coupled climate model (CSIRO), and the Hadley Centre Coupled model, version 3 (HadCM3), with respect to both worst case (A2) and better case (B2) scenarios (IPCC 2000).
Nearly all of the global climate models demonstrate mild temperature increases at lower latitudes, compared to extreme changes towards the poles. This perspective understates the impact that such a small rise in temperature could potentially have on tropical ecosystems and species. The tropics exist within much smaller annual temperature ranges than northern latitudes; therefore, the species and ecosystems have become accustomed to low temperature variability. Because of this, what could be considered a “mild” change in the tropics could in fact be devastating (Deutsch 2008). Building off of the framework of the EVCC index that had been prototyped by Tremblay-Boyer and Anderson (manuscript in preparation), a Climate Change Severity Index (CCSI) was constructed utilizing baseline climate data and derived monthly anomaly data. This measures the climate change that a particular location is expected to experience, compared to natural climate variation. In other words, the CCSI is a measure of how far a place will move outside of its normal comfort zone. It can be derived at a range of scales, depending on the spatial resolution or detail of the available climate data. Significance of CCSI Values
According to the results, should worst case scenario conditions prevail, by the 2020s, the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, will be significantly impacted by climate change. By the 2080s, all of the ecosystems and species of Central America and the Dominican Republic may be subjected to conditions well outside of their traditional comfort zone. Additionally, the results indicate that many of the ecosystems and species likely to be most affected by climate change already exist within protected areas. It would therefore be expected that if these areas continue to be protected, for a variety of reasons, the chances of these ecosystems’ and species’ adaptation to climate change would be higher compared to those more susceptible ecosystems currently not protected.
This information points not only to the utility of current protected areas but is also useful in adaptation strategies and for guiding the development of new protected areas and the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, in hopes to mitigate the potential impacts of future climate change.
The project is implemented by CATHALAC through the sponsorship of the Global Development Alliance program of USAID, and with support from NASA, the University of Alabama-Huntsville, Cable and Wireless-Panama, and ESRI.
The complete version of this study, which includes full graphics and individual country profiles, is available here: The datasets used and generated in this study are available for download in GIS format at: http://maps.cathalac.org/Portal (search: “climate change” or “biodiversity”).
For more information, please contact The majority of the above text comes from the following sources: Anderson, E.R., Cherrington, E.A., Flores, A.I., Perez, J.B., Carrillo R., and E. Sempris. 2008. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic. CATHALAC / USAID. Panama City, Panama. 105 pp. Anderson, E.R., Cherrington, E.A., Tremblay-Boyer, L., Flores, A.I., and E. Sempris. 2008. “Identifying Critical Areas for Conservation: Biodiversity and Climate Change in Central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic.” Biodiversity 9: 89-99. References
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